Figure 1.

Sensitivity analysis for a prostate cancer adjuvant trial. The shaded areas identify the optimal strategy for each combination of NNT_t and relative risk. White: include whole at-risk population of men undergoing prostatectomy. Dark grey: Include men with a predicted probability of recurrence ≥ 10% ; Light grey: Include men with a predicted probability of recurrence ≥ 50%; Black: Include no men on the trial (intervention does more harm than good). Note that specificity of the optimal strategy increases from top left to bottom right.